And here's looking into someones crystal ball:http://www.niemanlab.org/category/themes/predictions-2011/
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011

To close out 2010, we asked some of the smartest people we know to predict what 2011 will bring for the future of journalism.

Dec. 13: What will 2011 bring for journalism? Clay Shirky predicts widespread disruptions for syndication

Dec. 13: The great paywall debate: Will The New York Times’ new model work?

Dec. 13: Steven Brill: 2011 will bring ebook battles, paywall successes, and a new model for long-form articles

Dec. 14: Better curation on Twitter, pushback against anonymity, and more new startups: Predictions for 2011

Dec. 14: Smartphone growth, Murdoch’s Daily, and journalism for the poor: Predictions for mobile news in 2011

Dec. 15: In-car app stores, success for Xinhua, and more social media: Predictions for journalism in 2011

Dec. 15: Coming soon to journalism: Matt Thompson sees the “Speakularity” and universal instant transcription

Dec. 15: Dave Winer: There’s no good place for a new Maginot Line for the news

Dec. 16: Jonathan Stray: In 2011, news orgs will finally start to move past the borders of their own content

Dec. 16: Gawker copycats, luxurious print, more robots, and a new blogging golden age: Predictions for 2011

Dec. 17: DDoS attacks on the U.S. media, Twitter history searching, and a big blog deal: More predictions for 2011

Dec. 17: Jason Fry: A blow to content farms, Facebook’s continued growth, and the continued pull of the open web
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
What will 2011 bring for journalism? Clay Shirky predicts widespread disruptions for syndication
By Clay Shirky / Dec. 13 / 10 a.m. / 19 comments
Editor’s Note: To mark the end of the year, we at the Lab decided to ask some of the smartest people we know what they thought 2011 would bring for journalism. We’re very pleased that so many of them agreed to share their predictions with us.

Over the next few days, you’ll hear from Steve Brill, Vivian Schiller, Michael Schudson, Markos Moulitsas, Kevin Kelly, Geneva Overholser, Adrian Holovaty, Jakob Nielsen, Evan Smith, Megan McCarthy, David Fanning, Matt Thompson, Bob Garfield, Matt Haughey, and more.

We also want to hear your predictions: take our Lab reader poll and tell us what you think we’ll be talking about in 2011. We’ll share those results later this week.

To start off our package of predictions, here’s Clay Shirky. Happy holidays.

The old news business model has had a series of shocks in the 15 or so years we’ve had a broadly adopted public web. The first was the loss of geographic limits to competition (every outlet could reach any reader, listener or viewer). Next was the loss of progressive layers of advertising revenue (the rise of Monster and craigslist et alia, as well as the “analog dollars to digital dimes” problem). Then there is the inability to charge readers easily without eviscerating the advertising rate-base (the failure of micropayments and paywalls as general-purpose solutions).

Next up for widespread disruption, I think, is syndication, a key part of the economic structure of the news business since the founding of Havas in the early 19th century. As with so many parts of a news system based on industrial economics, that model is now under pressure.

Keep reading »

Tags: aggregation, Clay Shirky, Jeff Jarvis, Jonathan Stray, linking, Nicholas Carr, syndication
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
The great paywall debate: Will The New York Times’ new model work?
By Lois Beckett / Dec. 13 / noon / 16 comments
Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

Many of their predictions centered on what may be the most anticipated business-model shift of 2011: The New York Times’ shift to charging for full access to NYTimes.com next month. We found voices on both sides of the “will it work” debate. Here are Markos Moulitsas, Megan McCarthy, C.W. Anderson, Paddy Hirsch, Jason Fry, Nikki Usher, and Barry Sussman on how they see the metered model shaking out.
Megan McCarthy, editor, Mediagazer

Prediction for 2011: The building up — and subsequent tearing down — of online paywalls for general news sites. The New York Times are planning to implement their paywall in January and I predict it will be modified enough — either by the Times themselves or outside developers — to be rendered irrelevant by March.
C.W. Anderson, assistant professor of media culture, CUNY

Faced with a massive migration of regular readers to the Guardian and the BBC, The New York Times will abandon its recently enacted paywall.

Keep reading »

Tags: Barry Sussman, C. W. Anderson, charging, Jason Fry, Journalism Online, Markos Moulitsas, Megan McCarthy, New York Times, Paddy Hirsch, paywall
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
Steven Brill: 2011 will bring ebook battles, paywall successes, and a new model for long-form articles
By Steven Brill / Dec. 13 / 3 p.m. / 4 comments
Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

Here, Journalism Online cofounder and long-time journalism entrepreneur Steven Brill lays out three predictions for 2011.

1. E-books will continue to soar — and authors will get into major fights with publishers over who gets what percentage of the take, with more top authors withholding their e-book rights and selling them independently or through specialty distributors.

2. Someone — via Press+, I hope — will go into the business of commissioning long-form magazine articles from top writers and providing the first two or three paragraphs online for free and then selling the rest for, say, 75 cents or a dollar. That trailblazing publisher might call these “mini-e-books” and use a business model of simply splitting the revenues with the author, 50-50. My favorite candidates would be website publishers who already have great brand names, such as the Huffington Post or Daily Beast, but that want to revive long-form journalism and make money doing it (and limit risk by making some top writers their 50-50 business partners, rather than pay high flat fees for their work.)

Keep reading »

Tags: business model, charging, ebooks, long-form journalism, paid content, paywall, Press+, Steve Brill
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
Better curation on Twitter, pushback against anonymity, and more new startups: Predictions for 2011
By Lois Beckett / Dec. 14 / 10 a.m. / No comments
Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

Below are predictions from Bob Giles, Alan Murray, David Beard, Geneva Overholser, Alan D. Mutter, Melissa Ludtke, Brooke Kroeger, Jan Schaffer, and Ory Okolloh.

We also want to hear your predictions: take our Lab reader poll and tell us what you think we’ll be talking about in 2011. We’ll share those results later this week.
Bob Giles, curator, Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard

Newspaper companies will regret the deep cutting of newsgathering resources as the economy recovers and advertisers conclude that local newspapers are no longer vital sources of community coverage. Moreover, newspapers will follow their historical pattern of being slow to adapt to what’s new — in this case, opportunities offered by the iPad and other tablets.
Geneva Overholser, director, USC Annenberg’s School of Journalism

This will be the year when collaboration finally, truly, really takes hold. Smart legacy media leaders will determine what they and they alone can do best, then ally themselves with others who can supply the rest. Radio, TV, web-based publications, print publications, bloggers, international and national news providers, journalism schools, nonprofits, and commercial media — the smart ones will figure out their niche and how to partner (strategically) with others to be sure their work is seen. The public will be the biggest beneficiary.

Keep reading »

Tags: Alan Murray, Alan Mutter, Brooke, David Beard, Geneva Overholser, Jan Schaffer, Melissa Ludtke, Ory Okolloh
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
Smartphone growth, Murdoch’s Daily, and journalism for the poor: Predictions for mobile news in 2011
By Lois Beckett / Dec. 14 / noon / 1 comment
Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

One of the common threads through many of their predictions was mobile — the impact smartphones and tablets and apps will have on how news is reported, produced, distributed, and consumed. (Not to mention how it’s paid for.) Here are Vivian Schiller, Keith Hopper, Jakob Nielsen, Alexis Madrigal, Michael Andersen, Richard Lee Colvin, Megan McCarthy, David Cohn, and David Fanning on what 2011 will bring for the mobile space.
Vivian Schiller, president and CEO, NPR

After two decades of saying that “this is the year of mobile,” 2011 really will be the year of mobile.
Michael Andersen, editor, Portland Afoot

My wild prediction: 2011 will be the year of media initiatives that serve poor and middle-income people.

For 20 years, almost all native Internet content has been made for the niche interests — often the professional interests — of people who make more than the median household income of $50,000 or so. But one of the best things about the mobile Internet is that it’s finally killing (or even reversing) the digital divide.

Poor folks may not have broadband, but they’ve got cell phones. African Americans and Latinos are more likely than white people to use phones for the web, pictures, texts, emails, games, videos, and social networking. As hardware prices keep falling, we’ll see more and more demand for information that is useful to the lower-income half of the population — and thanks to low marginal costs, people will be creating products that fill that need. It’s about damn time, wouldn’t you say?

Keep reading »

Tags: Alexis Madrigal, apps, David Cohn, David Fanning, iPad, iPhone, Jakob Nielsen, Keith Hopper, Megan McCarthy, Michael Andersen, mobile, news apps, Richard Colvin, Vivian Schiller
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
In-car app stores, success for Xinhua, and more social media: Predictions for journalism in 2011
By Lois Beckett / Dec. 15 / noon / No comments
Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

Below are predictions from Paul Bass, John Paton, Philip Balboni, Martin Moore, Mark Luckie, Adrian Monck, Ken Doctor, Keith Hopper, and Vivian Schiller.

We also want to hear your predictions: take our Lab reader poll and tell us what you think we’ll be talking about in 2011. We’ll share those results later this week.
Paul Bass, founder, New Haven Independent

Every city of 100,000 or more in America will have its own online-only daily local news site.

Local governments will create their own “news” sources online to try to control the message and compete with new media and compensate for the decline of old media channels.

Newspapers, TV and radio stations, and online news outlets will collaborate on a bigger scale on local coverage and events
Vivian Schiller, president and CEO, NPR

“Local” takes center stage in online news, as newspaper sites, Patch, Yahoo, NPR member stations and new start ups (not for profit and for profit) form alliances, grow, and compete for audience and revenue online.

Twitter and Facebook become established as journalism platforms for newsgathering, distribution and engagement.

In-car Internet radio becomes a hot media topic, though penetration of enabled cars will lag by a few years.

Keep reading »

Tags: Adrian Monck, John Paton, Keith Hopper, Ken Doctor, Mark Luckie, Martin Moore, Paul Bass, Philip Balboni, predictions, Vivian Schiller, Xinhua
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
Coming soon to journalism: Matt Thompson sees the “Speakularity” and universal instant transcription
By Matt Thompson / Dec. 15 / 1 p.m. / 9 comments
Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

We also want to hear your predictions: Take our Lab reader poll and tell us what you think we’ll be talking about in 2011. We’ll share those results later this week.

Here’s Matt Thompson, he of Newsless, Snarkmarket, and NPR fame.

At some point in the near future, automatic speech transcription will become fast, free, and decent. And this moment — let’s call it the Speakularity — will be a watershed moment for journalism.

So much of the raw material of journalism consists of verbal exchanges — phone conversations, press conferences, meetings. One of journalism’s most significant production challenges, even for those who don’t work at a radio company, is translating these verbal exchanges into text to weave scripts and stories out of them.

After the Speakularity, much more of this raw material would become available. It would render audio recordings accessible to the blind and aid in translation of audio recordings into different languages. Obscure city meetings could be recorded and auto-transcribed; interviews could be published nearly instantly as Q&As; journalists covering events could focus their attention on analyzing rather than capturing the proceedings.

Keep reading »

Tags: data, search, transcription, video, YouTube
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
Dave Winer: There’s no good place for a new Maginot Line for the news
By Dave Winer / Dec. 15 / 2 p.m. / 6 comments
Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

Today, it’s web pioneer Dave Winer, a man key to the evolution of many of the publishing technologies we use online today, currently a visiting scholar in journalism at NYU, and half the team behind the Rebooting the News podcast.

When people in the news business try to figure out how to make news pay after the Internet, it seems analogous to the French, after being invaded by Germany in World War II, trying to figure out where to put the new Maginot Line.

The Maginot Line would have been a perfect defense in World War I. It didn’t help much in the second war.

Analogously, there was a perfect paywall in the pre-Internet news business, the physical product of a newspaper. There is no equivalent in the new distribution system.

Keep reading »

Tags: charging, commerce, CraigsList, deal brokering, Groupon, Maginot Line, paywall
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
Jonathan Stray: In 2011, news orgs will finally start to move past the borders of their own content
By Jonathan Stray / Dec. 16 / 11 a.m. / 3 comments
Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

Today, our predictor is Jonathan Stray, interactive technology editor for the Associated Press and a familiar byline here at the Lab. His subject: the building of new multi-source information products, and whether it’ll be news organizations that do the building.

2011 will be the year that news organizations finally start talking about integrated products designed to serve the complete information needs of consumers, but it won’t be the year that they ship them.

News used to be more or less whatever news organizations published and broadcast. With so many other ways to find out about the world, this is no longer the case. Professional journalism has sometimes displayed an antagonistic streak towards blogs, Wikipedia, and social media of all types, but it’s no longer possible to deny that non-journalism sources of news are exciting and useful to people.

Unencumbered by such tribalism — and lacking content creation behemoths of their own — the information technology industry has long understood the value of curating multiple sources, including traditional news content. Google web search was the first truly widespread digital public information system. RSS allowed readers to assemble their own news feeds. Mid-decade, Wikipedia exploded into the one of the top ten sites on the web, used as much for news as for reference. The business practices of news aggregators angered publishers, but there’s no getting around the fact that they are tremendously useful tools. The most recent change in information distribution is social. Twitter has become an entirely new form of news network, while Facebook wants media organizations to use their social infrastructure to reach users.

Keep reading »

Tags: aggregation, curation, Facebook, Flipboard, Google, information needs, service, Wikipedia
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
Gawker copycats, luxurious print, more robots, and a new blogging golden age: Predictions for 2011
By Lois Beckett / Dec. 16 / 1 p.m. / 2 comments
Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

Below are predictions from Susan Orlean, Joe Grimm, Matt Haughey, Adrian Holovaty, Megan McCarthy, Mark Potts, Jake Shapiro, and Cody Brown.

We also want to hear your predictions: take our Lab reader poll and tell us what you think we’ll be talking about in 2011. We’ll share those results in a couple days.
Susan Orlean, Twitter artist, and staff writer, The New Yorker

We’ll be reading more on our phones, our iPads, and our Super Scout Decoder rings by the end of next year.

Several magazines — maybe Time or Newsweek or both — will go monthly and/or digital only. But there will be new magazine startups in print that will be luxurious and expensive and book-like. 2011 will be the year of those two forms making themselves distinct; things on line will become more webby, and print publications will become more “collectible” and classic.

Journalism schools will offer a “web producer” major.

The last typewriter living in the wild will be captured, its DNA sequenced; and then it will be humanely destroyed.

Keep reading »

Tags: Adrian Holovaty, Cody Brown, Jake Shapiro, Joe Grimm, Mark Potts, Matt Haughey, Megan McCarthy, Susan Orlean
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
DDoS attacks on the U.S. media, Twitter history searching, and a big blog deal: More predictions for 2011
By Lois Beckett / Dec. 17 / 11 a.m. / 2 comments
Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring.

Below are predictions from Michael Schudson, Alexis Madrigal, Markos Moulitsas, Joy Mayer, Nicco Mele, Nikki Usher, Steve Buttry, Paddy Hirsch, John Davidow, Ethan Zuckerman, Richard Lee Colvin, and Kevin Kelly.

We also want to hear your predictions: Today’s the last day we’ll be accepting entries in our Lab reader poll, where you tell us what you think we’ll be talking about in 2011. We’ll share those results in a couple days.
Michael Schudson, historian and sociologist, Columbia Journalism School

Prognosticating about the news media in these times is a risky business, but I’ll try one nonetheless: In 2011, none of the 250 largest U.S. cities will stop publishing (on paper) its last remaining daily newspaper. Cities with more than one daily newspaper may be reduced to one survivor.
Alexis Madrigal, senior editor at The Atlantic and co-founder, Longshot Magazine

One of the truly important big city papers will go digital-only.
Kevin Kelly, author and founder, Wired Magazine

Twitter will go down for 36 hours. The ensuing media attention will prompt a 10 percent increase in signups in the months following.

Keep reading »

Tags: Alexis Madrigal, Ethan Zuckerman, John Davidow, Joy Mayer, Kevin Kelly, Markos Moulitsas, Michael Schudson, Nicco Mele, Nikki Usher, Paddy Hirsch, Richard Colvin, Steve Buttry
Series: Predictions for Journalism 2011
Jason Fry: A blow to content farms, Facebook’s continued growth, and the continued pull of the open web
By Jason Fry / Dec. 17 / 1 p.m. / 3 comments

Editor’s Note: We’re wrapping up 2010 by asking some of the smartest people in journalism what the new year will bring. Today, our predictor is Jason Fry, a familiar byline at the Lab. Jason also prognosticated earlier this week about the potential success of the NYT paywall.

Hyperlocal will remain stubbornly small scale. Large-scale efforts at cracking hyperlocal will seed more news organizations with content, but that content will remain mostly aggregation and data and still feel robotic and cold. Meanwhile, small-scale hyperlocal efforts will continue to win reader loyalty, but struggle to monetize those audiences. By the end of 2011, the most promising developments in hyperlocal will come from social media. Promising efforts to identify and leverage localized news and conversation in social media will be the buzz of late 2011, and we’ll be excited to think that social media is proving an excellent stepping stone to greater involvement in our physical communities.

Google will deal the content farms a big blow by tweaking its algorithms to drive down their search rankings. But the company will be opaque to the point of catatonia about exactly what it did and why it did it, reflecting its reluctance to be drawn into qualitative judgments about content. There will be talk of lawsuits by the spurned content farms and no small amount of jawing about Google’s power, lack of transparency, and whether or not it’s being evil. But even those worried about Google’s actions will admit that search is a much better experience now that results are less cluttered with horribly written crap.

Keep reading »

Tags: content farms, Facebook, Google, hyperlocal, search engine optimization, social media, tablets

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From Twitter

* Predicted: In 2011, Google will tweak its algorithms to drive down content farms' search rankings http://nie.mn/gYd0yQ 49 mins ago
* Better curation on Twitter, more news start-ups, and reconsidering anonymity: More 2011 predictions for media http://nie.mn/h3YqBk 2 hrs ago
* DDoS attacks on the media. A more searchable Twitter. An important paper goes digital-only. More predictions for 2011 http://nie.mn/g0bk1q 4 hrs ago
* 2011 predictions continue: Gawker copycats, luxurious print, more robots--and a new golden age for blogging http://nie.mn/fMxnWh 6 hrs ago
* Dealing with equal and opposite forces in news start-ups: How to speed up and slow down http://nie.mn/ecmX9e 8 hrs ago
* More updates...